NFL 2026 Index
LivePool
$700.00
fixed for the season
Settled to date
$94.00
as of the 2026-09-28 close
Unrealized
$606.00
pool minus settled
Clubs
32
NFL
$ / win
$2.00
Then $2 · $4 · $8 · $12 · $40
Max per share
$100.00
a champion that wins every regular-season game
The NFL 2026 Index tracks the settled value of all 32 NFL clubs. Each constituent is a Season Share that redeems $2.00 per regular-season win and at each of five playoff rungs, for a maximum of $100.00 reached only by a 17-0 champion.
The board sums to $700.00 every day: 272 regular-season wins at $2.00 plus a playoff ladder of $156.00, fixed regardless of results. Major League Markets holds no directional stake in any outcome.
Official league results govern settlement; a listing venue may designate its own settlement source of record.
Redemption schedule
| Event | Per share | Clubs credited | Pool |
|---|---|---|---|
| Each regular-season win | $2.00 | 272 results | $544.00 |
| Playoff berth | $2 | 14 clubs | $28.00 |
| Win Wild Card round | $4 | 8 clubs | $32.00 |
| Win Divisional round | $8 | 4 clubs | $32.00 |
| Win Conference Championship | $12 | 2 clubs | $24.00 |
| Win Super Bowl | $40 | 1 club | $40.00 |
| Pool per set of 32 · max per share $100.00 | $700.00 |
- A tie credits half a win to each club. A cancelled game with no official result credits half a win to each club. A first-round bye credits the Wild Card rung.
Constituent range since open
Every share, priced since the market opened
price in dollars · 32 shares · board total $700.00, fixed · priced September 28, 2026
Dollar price of each share at every dated snapshot. The board is the whole point: all 32 shares always sum to $700.00, so value rotates between teams instead of inflating — a share only climbs if another gives ground. Choose any teams below — up to six at once.
Indicative index values, calculated daily under the published Index Methodology. Read the methodology →
Values through the date shown are calculated under methodology v1.1.0, which prices each club from published season-level price quotes and does not yet credit games played. The in-season method (v1.2.0) credits played games on the morning after each game and takes effect on the date stated at /method.
| Club | Record | History | Listed price | Settled | Change since open | Unrealized | Rungs credited | Last event |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| → | 1–2 | $35.29 | $2.00 | +4.59% +1.55 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-21 · Win | |
| → | 2–1 | $33.84 | $4.00 | +9.59% +2.96 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-27 · Win | |
| → | 3–0 | $33.32 | $6.00 | +7.90% +2.44 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-27 · Win | |
| → | 2–1 | $31.02 | $4.00 | +2.85% +0.86 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-20 · Win | |
| → | 3–0 | $30.34 | $6.00 | +5.68% +1.63 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-27 · Win | |
| → | 3–0 | $28.87 | $6.00 | +5.21% +1.43 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-27 · Win | |
| → | 2–0 | $28.55 | $4.00 | +1.13% +0.32 | $96.00 | — | 2026-09-20 · Win | |
| → | 2–1 | $27.03 | $4.00 | −2.52% −0.70 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-27 · Win | |
| → | 2–1 | $26.91 | $4.00 | +7.77% +1.94 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-20 · Win | |
| → | 1–2 | $25.50 | $2.00 | −2.60% −0.68 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-20 · Win | |
| → | 2–1 | $25.20 | $4.00 | +0.52% +0.13 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-27 · Win | |
| → | 0–3 | $24.70 | $0.00 | −2.76% −0.70 | $94.00 | — | — | |
| → | 2–1 | $24.60 | $4.00 | +2.59% +0.62 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-27 · Win | |
| → | 1–2 | $23.97 | $2.00 | +9.35% +2.05 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-20 · Win | |
| → | 1–2 | $23.96 | $2.00 | −14.64% −4.11 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-20 · Win | |
| → | 1–1 | $23.44 | $2.00 | −2.46% −0.59 | $96.00 | — | 2026-09-13 · Win | |
| → | 3–0 | $22.65 | $6.00 | +13.31% +2.66 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-27 · Win | |
| → | 0–3 | $22.02 | $0.00 | −21.55% −6.05 | $94.00 | — | — | |
| → | 2–1 | $19.95 | $4.00 | −1.14% −0.23 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-27 · Win | |
| → | 0–3 | $19.58 | $0.00 | −6.23% −1.30 | $94.00 | — | — | |
| → | 1–2 | $18.31 | $2.00 | +5.47% +0.95 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-20 · Win | |
| → | 2–1 | $17.60 | $4.00 | +2.92% +0.50 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-27 · Win | |
| → | 1–2 | $17.46 | $2.00 | +15.40% +2.33 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-20 · Win | |
| → | 1–2 | $17.33 | $2.00 | −13.05% −2.60 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-27 · Win | |
| → | 1–2 | $16.67 | $2.00 | −4.25% −0.74 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-27 · Win | |
| → | 1–2 | $16.10 | $2.00 | +8.34% +1.24 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-24 · Win | |
| → | 0–3 | $13.77 | $0.00 | −6.20% −0.91 | $94.00 | — | — | |
| → | 3–0 | $12.91 | $6.00 | +8.85% +1.05 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-27 · Win | |
| → | 1–2 | $12.23 | $2.00 | +2.26% +0.27 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-13 · Win | |
| → | 2–1 | $11.98 | $4.00 | −15.99% −2.28 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-27 · Win | |
| → | 1–2 | $7.58 | $2.00 | −19.28% −1.81 | $94.00 | — | 2026-09-13 · Win | |
| → | 0–3 | $7.33 | $0.00 | −23.17% −2.21 | $94.00 | — | — |
Values before an index's launch date are back-tested and hypothetical.
| Product | Type | Venue | Jurisdiction | Ticker | Listed |
|---|
No listed products yet. License an index →
Methodology change log
- 2026-09-29 — Source-of-record naming removed from public copy; inputs, method and values unchanged.
- v1.2.0 — announced 2026-08-25, effective 2026-09-01. From the effective date, daily index values are produced by Major League Markets' own repricing engine rather than derived from the three published futures markets. The engine estimates each club's expected wins and rung probabilities by season simulation (N = 4,000,000 paths, date-seeded and deterministic: an unchanged-input day reproduces exactly), anchored to published game-level price quotes, with official league results and schedule as inputs once the season begins. The redemption schedule, the $700.00 issuance-equals-redemption identity, the ±$0.05 tolerance, the freeze rule, and the no-restatement rule are all unchanged. Shadow-run divergence evidence accumulated ahead of this change is retained. The three-market derivation described in v1.1.0 remains the documented fallback if the engine cannot produce a valid board.
- 2026-08-31 — Publication gap 2026-08-25 → 2026-08-30, disclosed. No index values were published on these six dates. Boards were priced on schedule for each date, but a failure in the delivery path between the pricing job and this site meant none reached publication, and the source files for those six boards were not retained. Five of them additionally carried a per-team rounding-identity defect that the publication gate rejects. Publication resumed 2026-08-31. No published value has been restated, and the six dates will not be backfilled — consistent with the standing rule that this index discloses gaps rather than filling them after the fact.
- 2026-08-24 — Publication gap 2026-08-12 → 2026-08-23, disclosed. Daily pricing runs continued throughout this period and priced correctly from the published inputs, but the generator's runbook had not been amended for the 2026-08-12 removal of the issuance spread, so each day's board was emitted with the withdrawn 5% markup and was withheld rather than published. The deploy gates, which require the listed board to tie to $700.00, stand between any such board and the published series. The runbook was corrected on 2026-08-24 and publication resumed the same day with the 2026-08-24 board. No published value has been restated, and the withheld boards will not be backfilled.
- 1.1.0 — 2026-08-12. Four changes, disclosed together.
The issuance spread is removed. Through version 1.0.2 the listed price was the fair value multiplied by 1.05, and the listed board was $735.00 against a $700.00 fair board. That 5% markup is withdrawn. The listed price is now the fair value and the listed board is $700.00 — the figure the index redeems. Spread, fees and any other commercial terms belong to the listing venue, not to the index. Every constituent's published price falls by approximately 4.77% as a result. This is a change to the published price definition, not to the instrument: the redemption schedule, the ladder and the $100.00 cap are unchanged.
The published series is restated. Removing a markup applied on top of the fair value would otherwise render, on 2026-08-12, as every constituent losing 4.77% of its value on a day when no input market moved. Rather than publish that, the entire series from the 2026-02-19 open forward has been restated to fair value. This is the first restatement of a published price by Major League Markets. The pre-restatement series is preserved in full and published alongside the current one, so the two can be compared directly and every difference attributed. For the five nodes dated 2026-08-03 onward, the restated price is the fair value recorded at publication, used verbatim. For the five earlier nodes no per-constituent fair value was retained, and the restated price is derived as the published price divided by 1.05 and rounded to the cent. Because the published price and the fair value were each independently rounded to the cent, a derived value may differ by one cent from the fair value originally computed. The derived nodes are identified as such in the published data. Every restated price is accurate to ±$0.01 per constituent and ±$0.05 at the board level, and every percentage change in the series is unaffected. From this version, the fair value of every constituent is stored at publication, so no future restatement can be an approximation.
The 1.0.2 disclosure below is corrected. That entry attributed day-over-day price artifacts to an iterative rescale with more than one fixed point. On measurement that attribution is wrong. Holding the algorithm fixed and varying the iteration count from 5 to 4,000, the column order across three permutations, and the placement of the monotonicity clamp produces no price change at all — the rescale converges to a single fixed point in fewer than five iterations. The actual cause is that this specification did not state the interpolation exponents, and each daily repricing chose its own; varying them within a plausible range moves a constituent by up to $0.31. The exponents are now pinned in section 6. The 1.0.2 entry also disclosed that the 2026-08-11 board was identical to the 2026-07-23 board across all 32 constituents. That was true of the pre-restatement series and is no longer true of the restated one, because the two nodes were restated by different routes. Both series are published; the coincidence is visible in the pre-restatement file. The 1.0.2 entry describes the deterministic repricing engine as taking effect at version 1.1.0. That is no longer accurate: version 1.1.0 is the spread removal and restatement described above, and the engine cutover has been renumbered to version 1.2.0, which will carry its own advance notice.
A source-of-record defect is corrected. Cincinnati's regular-season win total was taken from a table dated 2026-07-23 that carried an alternate rung, 10.5, rather than the main posted line of 9.5 published by the source of record's own outlet and updated 2026-08-10. Cincinnati was listed approximately $1.96 too high — 6.8% — on the boards of 2026-08-09 through 2026-08-11. Six playoff-berth inputs had also moved and were carried unchanged for 23 days. Correcting all seven inputs moves approximately $4.04 of absolute listed value across the board; every constituent other than Cincinnati, Detroit and Atlanta moves by $0.07 or less, and that movement is the win-total rescale redistributing rather than news. Consistent with the restatement above, these prices are corrected forward and not restated. This version introduces a ranked source hierarchy in section 5 to prevent recurrence: a stale source that reports a confident, unchanged, incorrect value was not something the previous date-lineage rule could detect. - 1.0.2 — 2026-08-11. Interior-rung advancement probabilities were recomputed from the input markets on every run, and that rescale is iterative with more than one fixed point, so two runs over identical inputs could settle on different interior values. Day-over-day price changes of up to $0.14 were published as a result — artifacts of recomputation rather than market moves, and above the ±$0.05 rounding tolerance stated in section 7. One consequence is disclosed here: the 2026-08-11 board is identical to the 2026-07-23 board across all 32 constituents, which is that same artifact and not a restatement — the 2026-07-23 values have never been altered. From 2026-08-12, a board whose three input markets are all unchanged republishes the preceding board's prices verbatim instead of recomputing them. No published price has been restated, and none will be. The deterministic repricing engine effective as v1.1.0 removes the underlying nondeterminism entirely.
- 2026-08-03 — display erratum corrected: the 2026-08-03 node briefly rendered the advancement probabilities in the wrong units (fractions instead of percent). Corrected in place. Prices, fair values, and expected values were unaffected.
- 1.0.1 — clarification of contract construction. No change to pricing inputs, calculation, redemption schedule, or settlement source.
- 1.0.0 — initial publication, 2026-07-30.